Counting the Cost: From Extraction to Green Transition – Tackling the Dealbreakers of Finance, Justice and Development

Though the continent contributes the least to global greenhouse gas emissions, it suffers some of the worst climate impacts. At the same time, Africa holds vast renewable and mineral resources essential for the global green economy — including 75% of global cobalt reserves, strong solar and wind potential, and emerging hydrogen opportunities.

The study cautions that overlapping global crises, heavy debt burdens, and limited adaptive capacity are eroding development gains and heightening vulnerability across the continent. While Africa is showing leadership in advancing green growth, fossil-fuel-dependent economies face the risk of stranded assets with significant consequences for jobs, incomes, and stability.

Energy insecurity remains a pressing challenge. Universal access by 2030 will require $25–50 billion annually, while fulfilling Africa’s climate commitments demands an additional $200 billion each year. Yet climate finance still relies heavily on loans, creating new debt risks, and mechanisms like the EU’s Carbon Border Adjustment threaten to further strain African economies.

The report Counting the Cost: From Extraction to Green Transition – Tackling the Dealbreakers of Finance, Justice and Development reveals Africa’s unique paradox: calls for urgent reforms to finance, justice, and development systems to unlock Africa’s green transition.